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A measure to estimate the risk of imported COVID-19 cases and its application for evaluating travel-related control measures
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Kang, Heewon | - |
dc.contributor.author | Min, Kyung-Duk | - |
dc.contributor.author | Jeon, Seonghee | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lee, Ju-Yeun | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cho, Sung-il | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-09-30T05:58:48Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-09-30T05:58:48Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2022-06-27 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2022-06 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Scientific Reports, Vol.12 No.1, p. 9497 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2045-2322 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10371/185077 | - |
dc.description.abstract | High connectivity between nations facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. We introduce an improved measure to estimate the risk of COVID-19 importation. The measure was applied to identify the effectiveness of travel-related control measures. We estimated the risk of importation, using the product of air-travel volume and COVID-19 prevalence in the area-of-origin. Travel volumes were acquired through real-time mobile data, and prevalence was calculated considering the time-varying strength of the COVID-19 testing policy. With the measure, the number of expected-imported cases was calculated, and compared with the reported-imported COVID-19 cases before and after post-entry quarantine for all entrants. The expected and reported-imported cases were well fitted (R-2 = 0.8). A maximum of 35 undetected-imported cases was estimated to have entered Seoul, before the first imported COVID-19 case was confirmed. With the travel-related control measures, at most, 48 (73%) imported cases could be isolated from the local community. Our measure predicted trends in imported COVID-19 cases well. The method used to develop the measure can be applied to future emerging infectious diseases. Our results provide a 'real-world' evidence that travel-related control measures are effective at curbing further COVID-19 transmission. | - |
dc.language | 영어 | - |
dc.publisher | Nature Publishing Group | - |
dc.title | A measure to estimate the risk of imported COVID-19 cases and its application for evaluating travel-related control measures | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41598-022-13775-0 | - |
dc.citation.journaltitle | Scientific Reports | - |
dc.identifier.wosid | 000810147600030 | - |
dc.identifier.scopusid | 2-s2.0-85131703757 | - |
dc.citation.number | 1 | - |
dc.citation.startpage | 9497 | - |
dc.citation.volume | 12 | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | N | - |
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor | Min, Kyung-Duk | - |
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor | Cho, Sung-il | - |
dc.type.docType | Article | - |
dc.description.journalClass | 1 | - |
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