Risk management for natural hazards based on reliability analysis: A case study of landslides

Abstract

To cope with natural disasters, it is necessary to establish a strategy for adaptation after analyzing the risk originating from natural hazards. When conducting risk analysis, the first step is estimating the frequency of occurrence, followed by calculating the probability of occurrence. This study aimed to estimate the frequency of landslide occurrence, using the correct units, and to present how the probability of occurrence can be calculated utilizing the concept of reliability, which corresponds well to the outcomes obtained when a Poisson distribution is employed. For the analysis, a pixel unit of GIS-based spatial information was considered as a component to denote the unit for the frequency of landside occurrence, and the equation for the probability of occurrence was derived from the definition of reliability. As a result, the frequency of landslide occurrence in the study region was demonstrated, and a sample calculation of the probability of landslide occurrence is presented.