주택시장의 활성화, 통제 및 대안: 831 주택정책의 분석

Abstract

Over several decades, Korean government has overwhelmed private sectors in dealing with housing issues within its jurisdiction. Especially, the current Roh government has repeatedly stressed the fact that housing per se has been degenerated into major means towards accumulation of wealth and various social problems have arisen from the skyrocketing housing prices. In order to cope with housing issues in a broader perspective, the government did not hesitate to announce Comprehensive Real Estate Programs on August 31, 2005. In Korea, the so-called 831 Countermeasures has brought unprecedented arguments both for and against, most of whom still seem to stick to anecdotal or self-centered judgment ahead of objective criteria. In an integrated point of view, applying the traditional methodology of system dynamics (SD), the paper aims at proposing basic Korean housing dynamics models. It focuses on divulging major Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) in Korean housing sector. Secondly, it observes how Korean housing market responds to a series of positive and negative impacts originated from the 8-31 Countermeasures. Between environmental and price factors, as the former exerts stronger impact on the positive loops, the study tries to develop policy guidelines hinged on an appropriate management of dynamic housing cycles, not to mention the price transfer into the neighboring areas. Thirdly, derived from simulation works, it proposes policy alternatives which would contribute to strengthening virtuous feedbacks and/or weakening vicious ones. Among them, the essential policy measure is given to how to minimize the governments direct involvement and how to boost housing markets role in deciding housing price. In the same vein, as the speculative or imputed demands always exist, policy alternative(s) based on housing attractiveness reflecting regional variation and price disparity should be given due attention.