The driving forces of increasing payouts of Korean firms in the 2010s

Abstract

While financial economists worried about disappearing dividends (Fama and French, 2001), Korean firms constantly increased payouts to its investors as the Korean economy recovered from the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. At the same time, interest cuts, economic recession and its aftermath following the global financial crisis limited capital gains opportunities for many investors in the 2010s. As a result, investor preference in higher dividend payments peaked, motivating firms to pay more.

The average annual inflation-adjusted net payouts, calculated as the sum of dividends paid and stock repurchases, less equity issuance by public industrial firms is 19.89% higher in the 2010s than the 2000s. Among the increase in payout, aggregate corporate income accounts for 10.43% of the increase, and an increase in the payout rate accounts for 89.57%. Such increase in the payout rates is not only because firms are bigger and profitable, but also because they are less financially constrained compared to the early 2000s when the economy was still recovering from the Asian financial crisis. Firms that are under the close monitoring of institutional investors paid out less than those who werent.

This research tests whether corporate characteristics can explain the high dividend payments paid by KOSPI listed firms. The results reassure the increasing trend of dividends and find statistically significant factors that drive this increase between 2015 and 2017, when the reflux tax burdens act was in effect.

파마-프렌치가 2001년 기업 배당금이 사라지고 있는 현상을 보고한 뒤, 미국 시장을 중심으로 해당 현상의 원인을 찾는 것은 학계의 가장 중요한 연구 주제들 중 하나였다. 하지만 한국 기업들은 IMF 금융위기에서 회복하는 과정에서 배당금을 점차 늘려가며, 미국과는 정 반대의 길을 걸어왔다. 최근 글로벌 금융 위기로 인한 금융 투자 기회가 줄어듦과 동시에 고배당 주식에 대한 투자자들의 관심이 높아졌기에, 한국 기업의 배당금 추이와 고배당을 견인하는 요인에 대한 연구가 중요해졌다.

본 논문은 유가증권시장 상장사들의 고배당정책을 기업의 특성들로 설명할 수 있는지를 실증적으로 분석하고자 한다. 실증분석 결과, 한국 기업들은 2010년대에 들어서 주주배당을 확장했음을 확인할 수 있었으며, 특히 2015-2017년에 시행된 환류세제법 도입 기간동안 유의미한 트렌드를 관측할 수 있었다.