Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in South Korea

Abstract

In 2020, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported three rounds of surveys on seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in South Korea. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus which inflicts the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We analyze the seroprevalence surveys using a Bayesian method with an informative prior distribution on the seroprevalence parameter, and the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. We construct the informative prior of the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test using the posterior distribution obtained from the clinical evaluation data. The constraint of the seroprevalence parameter induced from the known confirmed coronavirus 2019 cases can be imposed naturally in the proposed Bayesian model. We also prove that the confidence interval of the seroprevalence parameter based on the Rao's test can be the empty set, while the Bayesian method renders interval estimators with coverage probability close to the nominal level. As of the 30th of October 2020, the 95% credible interval of the estimated SARS-CoV-2 positive population does not exceed 318, 685, approximately 0.62% of the Korean population.