Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Cited 25 time in Web of Science Cited 28 time in Scopus

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Bell, Michelle L.; Sera, Francesco; Lavigne, Eric; Abrutzky, Rosana; Tong, Shilu; Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Kan, Haidong; Garcia, Samuel Osorio; Kysely, Jan; Urban, Ales; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Nunes, Baltazar; Teixeira, Joao Paulo; Tobias, Aurelio; Iniguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Astrom, Christofer; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Ragettli, Martina S.; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Tran Ngoc Dang, Oal; Dung Do Van, Oal; Mayvaneh, Fetemeh; Overcenco, Ala; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming

Issue Date
Pergamon Press Ltd.
Environment International, Vol.131, p. 105027
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 degrees C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 degrees C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 degrees C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 degrees C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 degrees C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p degrees C) and the Philippines (8.18%p degrees C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p degrees C) and Australia (-0.32%p degrees C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원)Dept. of Public Health (보건학과)Journal Papers (저널논문_보건학과)
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