The U.S. Involvement in Global Affairs and the DPRKs Aggressions: Investigating the Association Using Statistical Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to investigate, using statistical analysis, whether the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) increases its provocations and aggressions toward other states, especially toward the Republic of Korea (ROK), when the U.S. is involved in conflicts around the world. The empirical findings show that, during 1995–2021, the DPRKs provocations, conflicts with other states, and aggressions toward the ROK increased when the U.S. got involved in more global conflicts. Particularly, when the U.S. had conflicts with China–Russia–MENA (Middle East and North Africa) states, the DPRKs provocations, conflicts with other states, and hostile actions toward the ROK increased. Such findings imply that the DPRK regards the U.S. being preoccupied with multiple conflicts around the world as a chance to act aggressively toward other states because the U.S. will not be able to hinder the DPRKs actions.