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Sub-Seasonal Variability of ENSO Teleconnections in Western North America and Its Prediction Skill
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Cited 2 time in Scopus
- Authors
- Issue Date
- 2023-03
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union
- Citation
- Journal of geophysical research - Atmospheres, Vol.128 No.6, p. 037985
- Abstract
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly affects the wintertime surface climate in western North America (WNA) via the Pacific/North American-like teleconnection pattern. Here, we show that the ENSO teleconnections over the WNA have significant sub-seasonal variation despite the persistence of ENSO-related tropical sea surface temperature anomalies throughout the entire winter. The ENSO–WNA teleconnections become substantially weakened in mid-winter, considerably weaker than those in early and late winter. This mid-winter weakening of the ENSO–WNA teleconnections is attributable to the convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. In mid-December of El Niño winters, the anomalously-enhanced convection develops over the equatorial Indian Ocean and excites the teleconnection pattern with a 2-week time lag. This teleconnection largely opposes the Pacific/North American-like teleconnection pattern that is induced by anomalous convection over the equatorial central Pacific. Such sub-seasonal variation of ENSO teleconnections is poorly predicted by multi-model hindcasts, affecting the mid-latitude prediction skill. It particularly results in a poorer prediction skill of WNA surface air temperature in mid-winter than in late winter. This result highlights a need to better simulate the ENSO-related tropical convection and the associated teleconnections in the model to improve the long-lead prediction of the WNA surface climate.
- ISSN
- 2169-897X
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Related Researcher
- College of Natural Sciences
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
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