Detailed Information

Representation of boreal winter MJO and its teleconnection in a dynamical ensemble seasonal prediction system

Cited 2 time in Web of Science Cited 2 time in Scopus

Kim, Hyerim; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Hyun, Yu-Kyung

Issue Date
American Meteorological Society
Journal of Climate, Vol.31 No.21, pp.8803-8818
This study examines the representation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and its teleconnection in boreal winter in the Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), using 20 years (1991-2010) of hindcast data. The sensitivity of the performance to the polarity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also investigated. The real-time multivariate MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon is used to assess MJO prediction skill while intraseasonal 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies are used to evaluate the MJO teleconnection. GloSea5 exhibits significant MJO prediction skill up to 25 days of forecast lead time. MJO prediction skill in GloSea5 also depends on initial MJO phases, with relatively enhanced (degraded) performance when the initial MJO phase is 2 or 3 (8 or 1) during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast period. GloSea5 depicts the observed MJO teleconnection patterns in the extratropics realistically up to 2 weeks albeit weaker than the observed. The ENSO-associated basic-state changes in the tropics and in the midlatitudes are reasonably represented in GloSea5. MJO prediction skill during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast is slightly higher in neutral and La Niña years than in El Niño years, especially in the upper-level zonal wind anomalies. Presumably because of the better representation of MJO-related tropical heating anomalies, the Northern Hemispheric MJO teleconnection patterns in neutral and La Niña years are considerably better than those in El Niño years.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Appears in Collections:

Related Researcher

  • College of Natural Sciences
  • Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
Research Area Climate Change, Earth & Environmental Data, Severe Weather, 기후과학, 위험기상, 지구환경 데이터과학


Item View & Download Count

  • mendeley

Items in S-Space are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.