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Development of a machine learning model for predicting pediatric mortality in the early stages of intensive care unit admission

Cited 8 time in Web of Science Cited 9 time in Scopus

Lee, Bongjin; Kim, Kyunghoon; Hwang, Hyejin; Kim, You Sun; Chung, Eun Hee; Yoon, Jong-Seo; Cho, Hwa Jin; Park, June Dong

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Nature Publishing Group
Scientific Reports, Vol.11 No.1, p. 1263
The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model of pediatric mortality in the early stages of intensive care unit (ICU) admission using machine learning. Patients less than 18 years old who were admitted to ICUs at four tertiary referral hospitals were enrolled. Three hospitals were designated as the derivation cohort for machine learning model development and internal validation, and the other hospital was designated as the validation cohort for external validation. We developed a random forest (RF) model that predicts pediatric mortality within 72 h of ICU admission, evaluated its performance, and compared it with the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 (PIM 3). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of RF model was 0.942 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.912-0.972) in the derivation cohort and 0.906 (95% CI=0.900-0.912) in the validation cohort. In contrast, the AUROC of PIM 3 was 0.892 (95% CI=0.878-0.906) in the derivation cohort and 0.845 (95% CI=0.817-0.873) in the validation cohort. The RF model in our study showed improved predictive performance in terms of both internal and external validation and was superior even when compared to PIM 3.
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  • College of Medicine
  • Department of Medicine
Research Area 식품알레르기, 아토피피부염, 천식


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