China and Its Neighbors: Asymmetrical Economies and Vulnerability to Coercion

Abstract

With respect to China and its neighbors, what are the political implications when a great power advances economically into small states? This paper presents an asymmetry-coercion linkage to explain the relationship between a great power and small states by reconceptualizing Albert Hirschman's theory of trade dependency. This reconceptualization involves two tasks. First, the paper explicates vulnerability to coercion as a consequence of economic asymmetry, whereby a small state becomes susceptible to a great power's compellence or co-optation to take a certain path preferred by the latter. Second, in demonstrating and measuring vulnerability to coercion, the paper accounts for the three factors: Trade concentration, non-transparency, and reliance on bilateral aid. The combined effect of these three factors is that among the six countries under investigation, Cambodia and North Korea are extremely vulnerable to China's coercion, while Vietnam is the least vulnerable state.