자기조직화지도를 이용한 서울 폭염사례 분류 연구

Abstract

The characteristics of heat wave events in Seoul are analyzed using weather station data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA‐Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016. Heat waves are defined as events in the upper 10th percentile of the daily maximum temperatures. The associated synoptic weather patterns are then classified into six clusters through Self‐Organizing Map (SOM) analysis for sea‐level pressure anomalies in East Asia. Cluster 1 shows an anti‐cyclonic circulation and weak troughs in southeast and west of Korea, respectively. This synoptic pattern leads to southeasterly winds that advect warm and moist air to the Korean Peninsula. Both clusters 2 and 3 are associated with southerly winds formed by an anti‐cyclonic circulation over the east of Korea and cyclonic circulation over the west of Korea. Cluster 4 shows a stagnant weather pattern with weak winds and strong insolation. Clusters 5 and 6 are associated with Föhn wind resulting from an anti‐cyclonic circulation in the north of the Korean Peninsula. In terms of long‐term variations, event frequencies of clusters 4 and 5 show increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. However, other clusters do not show any long‐term trends, indicating that the mechanisms that drive heat wave events in Seoul have remained constant over the last four decades.