엘니뇨-남방진동과 한반도 겨울철 기후변동성의 그랜저 인과관계 검정

Abstract

The causal relationship between El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter climate variability in Korea is tested by analyzing Korea Meteorological Administration Automatic Synoptic Observing System datasets for the past 59 years. Consistent with previous studies, positive phase of ENSO (El Nino) tends to cause warmer temperature and heavier precipitation in Korea in early winter with three‐week lead time. This causality is quantified by performing Granger causality test. It turns out that ENSO explains an additional 9.25% of the variance of early‐winter temperature anomalies in Korea, beyond that already provided by temperature itself. Likewise, 22.18% additional information is gained to explain early‐winter precipitation variance by considering ENSO. This result, which differs from simple lead‐lag correlation analysis, suggests that ENSO needs to be considered in predicting early‐winter surface climate variability in Korea.