Modeling information flow and fragility in rapidly evolving disaster response systems

Abstract

Assessing the changing dynamic between demand that is placed upon-a community by cumulative exposure to hazards and capacity of that community to mitigate or respond to risk represents a central problem in estimating a community's resilience to disaster. We present an initial effort to simulate the dynamic between increasing demand and decreasing capacity in an actual disaster response system to determine the fragility of the system, or point at which the system fails. We construct a theoretical model of this process, and simulate the changing relationships, including in our model measures of magnitude of disaster, number of jurisdictions, and a simple type of cooperation to observe how these factors influence the efficiency of disaster operations. We focus not on the amount of information that is available to practicing managers, but on strategies for access to core information that enhances efficiency of information flow throughout the network of responding organizations.