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Markov 전이모형을 이용한 IMT-2000 수요예측 : Demand Forecasting of IMT-2000 Services Using Markovian Transition Model
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | 안상형 | - |
dc.contributor.author | 최강화 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-01-26T02:03:19Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2010-01-26T02:03:19Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2002-09 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | 경영논집, Vol.36 No.2/3, pp. 419-443 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1229-0491 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10371/44388 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper explores demand forecasting model and user behavior of continuous growing
IMT-2000 in telecommunication market, mostly focusing on the usage of multi-media contents, integration of wire & wireless telephony and global access system. Based on consumer need and service cost of IMT-2000, this research proceeds Markovian transition model expressing expected value of subscription probability. The expected value of subscription probability uses choice model, expansion of IMT-2000 service is resulted from substitution of IMT-2000 service of potential subscriber, which is cellular/PCS users. To gain the expected value of subscription probability, we estimate β-value of logistic regression model through significant factor in question research. Empirical data analysis focuses on the using status of existing mobile service users, their awareness of forthcoming IMT-2000 services and other related variables of IMT-2000 services and proceeds to forecast consumer need and expected usage of the services based on this data. This approach seems to be reasonable because most of IMT-2000 service users are expected to migrate from existing cellular phone & PCS services. Finally, researchers concludes that the S pattern of user explosion, which was commonly observed at the developing stage of existing telecommunication markets, will fairly apply to this newly coming IMT-2000 services, assuming the migration of existing telecom service users. | - |
dc.language.iso | ko | - |
dc.publisher | 서울대학교 경영연구소 | - |
dc.title | Markov 전이모형을 이용한 IMT-2000 수요예측 | - |
dc.title.alternative | Demand Forecasting of IMT-2000 Services Using Markovian Transition Model | - |
dc.type | SNU Journal | - |
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthor | Ahn, Sang-Hyung | - |
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthor | Choi, Kang-Hwa | - |
dc.citation.journaltitle | 경영논집 | - |
dc.citation.endpage | 443 | - |
dc.citation.number | 2/3 | - |
dc.citation.pages | 419-443 | - |
dc.citation.startpage | 419 | - |
dc.citation.volume | 36 | - |
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