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Markov 전이모형을 이용한 IMT-2000 수요예측 : Demand Forecasting of IMT-2000 Services Using Markovian Transition Model

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dc.contributor.author안상형-
dc.contributor.author최강화-
dc.date.accessioned2010-01-26T02:03:19Z-
dc.date.available2010-01-26T02:03:19Z-
dc.date.issued2002-09-
dc.identifier.citation경영논집, Vol.36 No.2/3, pp. 419-443-
dc.identifier.issn1229-0491-
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10371/44388-
dc.description.abstractThis paper explores demand forecasting model and user behavior of continuous growing

IMT-2000 in telecommunication market, mostly focusing on the usage of multi-media

contents, integration of wire & wireless telephony and global access system.

Based on consumer need and service cost of IMT-2000, this research proceeds Markovian

transition model expressing expected value of subscription probability. The expected value of

subscription probability uses choice model, expansion of IMT-2000 service is resulted from

substitution of IMT-2000 service of potential subscriber, which is cellular/PCS users. To gain

the expected value of subscription probability, we estimate β-value of logistic regression

model through significant factor in question research.

Empirical data analysis focuses on the using status of existing mobile service users, their

awareness of forthcoming IMT-2000 services and other related variables of IMT-2000

services and proceeds to forecast consumer need and expected usage of the services based on

this data. This approach seems to be reasonable because most of IMT-2000 service users are

expected to migrate from existing cellular phone & PCS services.

Finally, researchers concludes that the S pattern of user explosion, which was commonly

observed at the developing stage of existing telecommunication markets, will fairly apply to this newly coming IMT-2000 services, assuming the migration of existing telecom service

users.
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dc.language.isoko-
dc.publisher서울대학교 경영연구소-
dc.titleMarkov 전이모형을 이용한 IMT-2000 수요예측-
dc.title.alternativeDemand Forecasting of IMT-2000 Services Using Markovian Transition Model-
dc.typeSNU Journal-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthorAhn, Sang-Hyung-
dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthorChoi, Kang-Hwa-
dc.citation.journaltitle경영논집-
dc.citation.endpage443-
dc.citation.number2/3-
dc.citation.pages419-443-
dc.citation.startpage419-
dc.citation.volume36-
Appears in Collections:
College of Business Administration/Business School (경영대학/대학원)Institute of Management Research (경영연구소)경영논집경영논집 vol.36 (2002)
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