일본의 신아시아 국제질서 구상에 관한 연구

Abstract

Most people would agree that Japan will be an important actor in a new international order. So called "Peace Constitution" explicitly denies the right of possessing military armament as a means of war and aggression. Japan"s defence budget of 1993, however, is $ 37 billion which ranks the second largest in the world. Japan is also aiming to become a member of a permanent member of the Security Council. Japan is no longer "ordinary state". No one can deny that Japan is now a economic and political superpower with high military potentialities. A nation with the economic and technical strength like Japan may unlikely remain a regional power in the next century.

Japan"s security strategy has been, so far, closely linked to its alliance with the U.S. In the last fifty years, Japan supported America"s global containment policy aganist the Soviet Union. However, the collapse of communism will profoundly change a strategic concept of Japan. In the disappearance of the common enemy, reason d"etre of MSA between US and Japan may be in doubt. New Hosokawa Government will probably pursue its global policy to enhance political influence suitable to her economic strength. New leaders will also move toward the amendment of the article 9 of the Constitution and the strengthening of the military capabilities.

For the long term, Japan would strengthen its military armament in considering a disengagement policy of the US Government. The military built-up of Japan would eventually create an uncertainties in Asia which has already been a cause of escalating arms races in this region.

Are there any policy alternatives to restrain or contain Japan becoming a strong military power? Last July President Clinton proposed an establishment of American oversea troops under the UN. Mr. Ozawa Ichiro who played a crucial role in the process of bringing about recent political change in Japan also proposed a strengthening of the PKO forces of Japan as a means of active participation in the world politics and of taking responsibility suitable to its economic strength.

The presence of the US troops in Japan is probably a most reliable device to deter Japan"s superpower ambition. If US maintain military troops under the aegis of the UN flag deterence effect would be much higher. If the new Hosokawa government agrees to establish a standing forces for UN in the forthcoming General Assembly of the UN, a new device under the command of the Security Council would certainly contribute to restrain its military ambition. It is safe to mention that to have two seperate UN standing forces in Japanese territory may, at least for the short term, provide a secure mechanism to contain Japanese conservative movement.