When Hawks are Doves and Doves are Hawks: Domestic Conditions and Foreign Conflicts

Abstract

The theoretical and empirical linkage between domestic attributes and the use of force in international crises is revisited in this study. I integrate two important hypotheses about that linkage: the liberal hypothesis which suggests that domestic constraints reduce the use of violence during international crises and the rally-round-the-flag effect which proposes that domestic enthusiasm encourages such violence. Whereas these perspectives generally are viewed as contradictory, I generate a formal model which unifies them. I provide a composite variable in my model that includes a component for domestic constraints against the use of force and a component for capturing public support for a nations use of force.

The main results show that the relationship between a crisis initiators hawkish or dovish type and its likelihood of war involvement is not monotonic either in my model or in the experience of European nations involved in crises over the past nearly two hundred years. J find that a Semi-Dove initiator is more likely to engage in foreign wars or mutual violence than is a Semi-Hawk initiator. The theoretical implications of the model help reconcile the apparent contradictions between the liberal school and the rally-round-the-flag effect. The model also suggests avenues for future research and refinement of the hypotheses.