S-Space College of Dentistry/School of Dentistry (치과대학/치의학대학원) Dept. of Dentistry (치의학과) Journal Papers (저널논문_치의학과)
Early stature prediction method using stature growth parameters
- LEE, SHIN-JAE; AN, HONGSEOK; AHN, SUG-JOON; KIM, YOUNG HO; PAK, SUNYOUNG; LEE, JAE WON
- Issue Date
- Annals of Human Biology, 2008;35(5): 509–517
- Background: The creation of an accurate growth prediction method for human stature at a stage of
growth has been an interesting challenge in medical science and human biology.
Aim: The aim of this study was to develop a non-radiographic final stature prediction method that is
applicable in the early pubertal growth period.
Subjects and methods: Randomly selected 12-year serial stature growth data for 400 Koreans were fitted
with two nonlinear growth curves: Preece and Baines model 1 (PB1) and Jolicoeur–Pontier–Pernin–
Sempe (JPPS) functions. Five biological parameters, including take-off (TO) related parameters, were
derived by differentiation of the two curves, respectively. Those five variables were composed into
a multiple linear regression equation for final stature prediction. In the cross-validation subjects,
TO-related variables were estimated by linear interpolation from the partial growth data prior to
estimation age, then incorporated into the prediction equation.
Results: The final stature prediction model had excellent validity and accuracy when applied to the
cross-validation samples. Prediction accuracy increased according to increasing years after take-off.
Conclusions: This study suggests that a final stature prediction method using multiple regression
analysis that includes biological parameters can predict stature growth with sufficient validity and
accuracy. Incorporation of TO-related parameters allowed us to develop earlier growth evaluation and
prediction methods compared with other previous methods.
- 0301-4460 (print)
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