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수문학적 예측의 정확도에 따른 저수지 시스템 운영의 민감도 분석
Sensitivity analysis for operating a reservoir system to hydrologic forecast accuracy

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Authors
김영오
Issue Date
1998
Publisher
Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회
Citation
한국수자원학회논문집, Vol. 31. No. 6, pp. 855-862
Keywords
예측 정확도저수지 시스템 운영계절별 예측Bayesian 추계학적 동적계획법forecast accuracyreservoir system operationseasonal forecastBayesian stoachastic dynamic programming
Abstract
This paper investigtes the impact of the forecast error on performance of a reservoir system for hydropower production Forecast error is measured as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and parametrically varied within a Generalized Maintenance of Variance Extension (GMOVE) procedure. A set of transition probabilities are calculated as a function of the RMSE of the GMOve procedure and then incorporated into a Byesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model which derives monthly operating policies and assesses their performance. As a case study, the proposed methodology is applied to the Skagit Hydropower System (SHS) in Washington state. The results show that the system performance is a nonlinear function of RMSE and therefore suggested that continued improvements in the current forecast accuracy correspond to gradually greater increase in performance of the SHS.
본 연구는 수력발전을 위한 저수지 관리에 있어 예측오차의 영향을 살펴보기 위해 예측오차를 Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)로 측정하였고, 이를 Generalized Maintenance Of Variance Extension (GMOVE)기법을 통하여 변화시켜보았다.변화된 예측오차의 RMSE는 천이확률을 통하여 Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (BSDP)에 고려되어졌으며, 이 BSDP 모형을 이용하여 월별 방류량을 결정하였고 그 유용성을 평가하였다. 제시된 연구방법은 미국의 Skagit 시스템에 적용되었고, 그 결과로 Skagit 시스템의 운영은 예측오차의 RMSE에 비선형이므로 반응하므로 이 시스템의 운영을 개선하기 위해서는 현재의 수문학적 예측기법을 개선해야함을 제시하였다.
ISSN
1226-6280
Language
English
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/67733
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College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering (건설환경공학부)Journal Papers (저널논문_건설환경공학부)
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