초혼연령에 영향을 주는 사회경제적 변인

Abstract

Age at first marriage has risen dramatically in many industrialized societies. Men and women are postponing marriage and the birth rate is falling in Korea. In 2003 the average age at first marriage for women in Korea was 27.8 compared with the USA's average of 25.5, a full two years older and the average age for men marrying was 30.9. The percentage of the elderly is growing rapidly and their care becomes a major social problem as the whole society gets older and has lost vitality. The aim of this paper is to investigate the differentials and determinants of average age at first marriage in Korea using panel data of the National Statistical Office. The two-stage structural regression model was employed to identify the magnitude and significance of the effects of various socioeconomic variables on average age at first marriage. The variables of female labor force participation rate, consumer price index, gross national income per capita, the relative scarcity of the opposite sex, and housing availability were found to be significant determinants of males age at first marriage. Since obtaining housing is generally an important prerequisite to setting up a household, housing availability affects the timing of marriages among persons who have definitely decided to marry. The empirical results show that lagged variables of the amount of housing completions have negative influence on man's average age at first marriage, while the increased economic opportunity for women makes marriage less attractive to women. On the other hand, sex ratio, the relative scarcity of the opposite sex, and interest rates and marriage rate of the previous year are proven to be determinants of female average age at first marriage.