S-Space College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원) Dept. of Industrial Engineering (산업공학과) Journal Papers (저널논문_산업공학과)
Brownian agent-based technology forecasting
- Shin, Juneseuk; Park, Yongtae
- Issue Date
- ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
- TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE; Vol.76 8; 1078-1091
- Brownian agent; Software industry; Simulation; Technology forecasting; Intermediate complexity
- Today''''''''s innovation process is best characterized by nonlinearity and interaction. Agent-based models build on these concepts, but have not been useful in practice because they are either too complex or too simple to make a good match with reality. As a remedy, we employ a Brownian agent model with intermediate complexity to produce value-added technology forecasting. As an illustration with Korea''''''''s software industry data, computer simulation is carried out. Attracted by higher technology value, agents concentrate on specific technology regions, and form co-existing major technology regions of high density. A rough comparison with actual software production data exhibits a fair reflection of reality, and supports the underlying idea that economic motivation of agents should be considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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