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Brownian agent-based technology forecasting

Cited 7 time in Web of Science Cited 12 time in Scopus
Authors
Shin, Juneseuk; Park, Yongtae
Issue Date
2009-10-01
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE; Vol.76 8; 1078-1091
Keywords
Brownian agentSoftware industrySimulationTechnology forecastingIntermediate complexity
Abstract
Today''''''''s innovation process is best characterized by nonlinearity and interaction. Agent-based models build on these concepts, but have not been useful in practice because they are either too complex or too simple to make a good match with reality. As a remedy, we employ a Brownian agent model with intermediate complexity to produce value-added technology forecasting. As an illustration with Korea''''''''s software industry data, computer simulation is carried out. Attracted by higher technology value, agents concentrate on specific technology regions, and form co-existing major technology regions of high density. A rough comparison with actual software production data exhibits a fair reflection of reality, and supports the underlying idea that economic motivation of agents should be considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0040-1625
Language
English
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/75358
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.04.001
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College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Dept. of Industrial Engineering (산업공학과)Journal Papers (저널논문_산업공학과)
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