НЗП기 소련의 농민경제와 콘드라티예프의 친(親)농민적 경제발전계획론

Abstract

Among the economists rehabilitated in July, 1987 was Nicholas Kondratev, known in the West for his theory of the long wave cycle of capitalism but branded in his country since his trial and execution in 1930 as an enemy of the people who had tried to revive capitalism. He is not only cleared of these charges but is becoming a new focus of attention the man whose theory of economic development based on the strengthening of the peasant economy offered a viable alternative to Stalinism.

Kondratev s theory of economic development differed from the Stalinist main line on two main points. He argued that socialism could not be built and world revolution could not succeed without paying careful attention to the long wave, as well as the short-range, cycles of capitalism and that Russia as a country which successfully accomplished anti-feudal and anti-imperialist revolution without a highly developed capitalism had to strengthen its agricultural economy as a prerequisite to successful industrialization.

Whether Kondratevs alternative would have worked better than Stalins is a question which cannot be answered simply. Kondratevs insistence on reliance on market mechanism and production incentive to the peasants may not have resulted in any noticeable increase in the income from agricultural exports since the price drop had little to do without policy-making in the Soviet Union. 1t might have exacerbated the problem of social differentiation in the villages and economic disparity between the city and countryside. On the other hand, the worst consequences of the Stalinist policy of forced collectivization, destruction of agriculture and bureaucratic bulldozing of the peasant life could have been avoided. The purging of the Bolshevik right and Kondratev school meant the end to open-minded search for better road to socialism.