푸틴 집권기 러시아의 대외정책: 실용적 현실주의의 이중성

Abstract

This paper criticizes dichotomous conceptualizations of Putin's foreign policy either as pro-western or as imperialist one. Instead it argues that Putin's policy combines these two orientations as a pragmatic way to recover Russia's status as a great power at global as well as regional level. Unlike his predecessor, Putin has abandoned the rhetoric of balance of power and multi-polarity. He chose to actively cultivate cooperative relations with the West including the United States, particularly after 9/1l. His choice is based on the realist judgment about the Russia's power dramatically declined since the end of the Soviet Union. At the same time, on the other hand, Putin has aggressively pursued hegemony in the Near Abroad by mobilizing not only economic but also political and military leverages, which has been quite successful in recovering Russia's influence over the region. But it may conflict with the goal of cooperation with the West which is necessary to modernize the Russian economy. Nevertheless Putin is likely to keep the current policy line; the West lacks common strategy and policy instruments to effectively pressure Russia; the Russian elites prefer the status quo. Putin's pragmatic realism may bring another "breathing space" in Russian history.