미국 정당의 양극화 현상과 분할투표 결정요인의 변동에 관한 연구: 피오리나(Marris P. Fiorina)의 정책균형 분할투표 이론을 중심으로

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between ideological party polarization and policy-balancing split-ticket voting by investigating the factors determining split-ticket voting in American federal elections in 2000 and 2004. Morris P. Fiorina made a theoretical argument that the frequency of split-ticket voting will increase as party polarization is deepened. However, many empirical studies have falsified Fiorina' 5 argument by showing that the frequency of split-ticket voting decreases as party polarization is deepened. This study aims to reconsider the conflicts theoretical argument and empirical findings by focusing on the complex voter's responses to party polarization. In other words, voters generally come to recognize the party label as an important standard of candidate selection when party polarization is deepened. Consequently, partisan voting increases, and the frequency of ticket-splitting diminishes. However, we can also predict that party polarization would promote policy-balancing split-ticket voting of moderate electorates because they may be more concerned about the emergence of extreme government due to party polarization. The results in this article show that the proportion of policy-oriented split-ticket voters in 2004 elections has increased compared to that in 2000 elections by increasing party polarization. This empirical finding thus strengthens the applicability of Fiorina's theory to studies of contemporary ticket-splitting in American elections.