Competitive Diffusion of Nuclear and Nonnuclear Energy in Korea

Abstract

This study explains the competitive diffusion of nuclear energy and nonnuclear energy, adopting the Lotka-Volterra model of nonlinear dynamics to do so. In this paper, the competitive relationship in the energy diffusion process is treated as a competitive ecosystem in which nuclear energy as an emerging species competes with existing nonnuclear energy. We analyze installed capacity data of each energy source from 1978 to 2012. Using estimated Lotka-Volterra models, we investigate what kind of competitive relationship obtained between nuclear and nonnuclear power in the energy policies of every South Korean government from 1982 to 2012. The result shows that mutualism has largely characterized energy diffusion in Korea. That is, nuclear energy and nonnuclear energy stood in a win-win relationship to each other most of the time, promoting the proliferation of each other in the diffusion process. Between 1988 and 1991, in 1997, and then again 2008, the relationship between the two was a predatorprey one: nuclear energy as a predator inhibited the diffusion of nonnuclear energy as a prey in the diffusion process. This result implies the path dependency of the energy policy in Korea. Taking the current competitive environment as our cue, we forecast the future diffusion scenario using an equilibrium analysis and a numerical simulation. The forecast shows that the proportion of installed nuclear capacity in 2030 will reach to 23.8% of total energy sources, which is about 5% below the energy policy goal set by the Park Keun-hye government recently.