Determinants of Interregional Migration Flows in Korea by Age Groups, 1995-2014

Abstract

Despite the growing importance of interregional migration at the local level in rapidly aging society, past literature overlooked the relationship between these two demographic phenomena. To better understand the determinants of interregional migration and its implications for population aging, this study estimated fixed-effects models derived from the gravity model of migration using population registration data. Contrary to theoretical expectation, economic determinants of migration showed similar patterns across three age groups. Other than the effect of crude marriage rate for young age group, life course variables showed inconsistent effects on migration. Trends in migration flows by geographical regions indicated that some provinces are in double jeopardy because their elderly population is increasing while the young population decreases. Visual inspection of migration systems drawn from social network analysis suggested that migration streams between Seoul and Gyeonggi overwhelms all other regions and that Ulsan and Jeju are isolated throughout the periods.