Probabilistic simulation of power transmission systems affected by hurricane events based on fragility and AC power flow analyses

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Ma, Liyang; Christou, Vasileios; Bocchini, Paolo
Issue Date
13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering(ICASP13), Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019
This paper presents a technique for probabilistic simulation of power transmission systems under hurricane events. The study models the power transmission system as a network of connected individual components, which are subjected to wind-induced mechanical failure and power flow constraints. The mechanical performance of the transmission conductors are evaluated using an efficient modal superpoistion method and extreme value analysis. The fragilty model is then developed using first order reliability theory. The asssumptions of the method are discussed, and its accuracy is thoroughly investigated. The component fragilities are used to map the damage of hurricane events to the failure probabilities. The electircal performance of the components is modeled through an AC-based power flow cascading failure model, to capture the unique phenomena affecting power systems, such as line overflow and load shedding. The methodology is demonstrated by a case study involving a hurricane moving across the IEEE 30-bus transmission network. This technique aims at helping decision makers gain fundamental insights on the modeling and quantification of power system performance during hurricane events.
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College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering (건설환경공학부)ICASP13
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