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Efficient simulation-based approaches for community-level probabilistic seismic risk assessment : 지역단위 지진 리스크 평가를 위한효율적 시뮬레이션 기반 접근법

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Authors

최병성

Advisor
송준호
Major
공과대학 건설환경공학부
Issue Date
2017-02
Publisher
서울대학교 대학원
Keywords
seismic riskcross-entropyprincipal component analysiscentral limit theoremfeature selection
Description
학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 건설환경공학부, 2017. 2. 송준호.
Abstract
A research is required to evaluate seismic risk of community on the probabilistic framework. That is because (a) spatially distributed buildings/infrastructures are critical assets in urban community and (b) there are uncertainties in both natural hazard and structural behavior. While Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been a solution to assess risk at community-level, MCS is not always efficient solution especially when severe hazardous scenarios should be investigated. Although Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) provides straightforward environment to evaluate seismic risk on the urban assets, it requires a large computational cost to forecast rare event. Such catastrophic situations should be identified to keep our community being sustainable even after urban disasters. To overcome this issue, this thesis proposes alternative simulation-based approaches for probabilistic seismic risk assessment at community-level, (a) cross-entropy-based concurrent adaptive importance sampling (CE-CAIS) and (b) clustering-based approach. These new techniques are designed to establish computationally efficient frameworks for probabilistic seismic risk assessment on urban community. In Chapter 2, CE-CAIS is introduced to identify seismic risk on multi-state, large-scale systems with two dimensionality reduction techniques to expand the applicability of CE-CAIS. In Chapter 3, the clustering-based approach is demonstrated to forecast seismic risk on complex urban road networks with decreased computing resources. Several numerical examples are attached on each chapter to validate our proposals. Through this thesis, further researches are expected to produce other valuable achievements while increasing the communication with urban disaster and resilience.
Language
English
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/124360
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