S-Space College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원) Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering (건설환경공학부) ICASP13
A Probabilistic Framework for Post-Disaster Functionality Recovery of Community Building Portfolios
- Issue Date
- 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering(ICASP13), Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019
- One distinguished feature of a resilient community is its ability and rapidity to recover from severe natural hazard events. The building portfolio acts as a crucial link in supporting the overall recovery of a community, as on the one hand, it relies on communitys lifeline systems to maintain functionality, and on the other hand, it interfaces with people in the most direct manner to sustain social and economic vitality in the community. In this study, we introduce a probabilistic framework for postdisaster functionality recovery of community building portfolios, which at the same time allows the timevariant dependencies among different infrastructure systems (water, power, transportation, building portfolio) to be collectively reflected in the recovery outcome of the communitys building portfolio. The post-disaster functionality restoration at individual building level is modeled as a discrete-state, continuous time Markov Chain (CTMC). To capture the functional dependency of a building on the availability of utilities (i.e. water and power), as well as its restoration dependency on the efficiency of the transportation system, the time-variant system-level performances of these lifelines are first deaggregated (or downscaled) to each building site, then their impacts on building restoration are incorporated in the building-level CTMC. The CTMCs of all individual buildings can then be aggregated to obtain the overall building portfolio recovery trajectory and recovery time. Such coupling of physical systems of distinct topologies over a consistent spatial and temporal scale can provide a rich array of information to support community recovery planning in a systematic manner. Lastly, this framework is implemented to Shelby County, TN under a scenario earthquake event.